For 2020, we project VLSFO to price at US $531/mt in Rotterdam as compared to US $309/mt for HSFO, allowing for some economic benefit to a scrubber solution. $20.00 Rizhao. Oil price information Last update: 2020-12-21 Nr. Over 2 mb/d of HSFO shifts to gasoil and VLSFO. Disclaimer  |  Privacy Policy  |  Cookie Policy  |  Terms of Use  |  Data Terms of Use  |  Modern Slavery Act Transparency Statement  |  Report a Security Concern. Stream live futures and options market data directly from CME Group. Latest Prices, VLSFO Fuel Oil, IMO2020 Grade, 0.5%S. Switch away from HSFO to low-sulphur fuels e.g. The demand for 1% LSFO is already reflected in the high spread vs 3.5% HSFO. Careers | The tone of IMO … In recent weeks, we have updated our projection ahead of the IMO’s forthcoming 0.5 percent sulfur cap. 34 industry leaders from companies such as Maersk, Cargill and Trafigura recently committed to zero-carbon emission fuels by 2030. November's figures may equal … Port HSFO-380 VLSFO 0.5% ULSFO 0.1% MGO Deliv. 0.1% MGO will likely be the dominant bunker fuel of choice however refinery supply restrictions will make this much more expensive. US shale oil prospects, 2010-2024 Open. $20.00 Lanshan. Access real-time data, charts, analytics and news from anywhere at anytime. $20.00 Wilhelmshaven. USGC HSFO was assessed at a discount of $29.19/b to Brent on November 13, and 3.5% FOB Rotterdam at a discount of $36.13/b to Brent on November 27, both all-time lows. $114/mt). $20.00 Bremen. This leads to the forecast of price differences between LSFO and HSFO. Crude oil price analysis and research that covers crude oil futures and oil price forecasts. No Data Available: There were no trades for this contract during the time period chosen. The company is comprised of four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). Although an increasing price differential between 3.5% HSFO and VLSFO/MGO may significantly decrease the theoretical payback time on a scrubber, there are larger issues and areas of uncertainty: Consider that the top 7 ports account for 60% of bunker demand (Singapore skews this number significantly). LNG, although much talked about will likely account for <1% of demand in 2020. With refining capacity already strained and distillate cracks already incentivising high yields, it’s likely to result in an increase in 0.1% MGO price by at least $120/mt in order to compete with other end consumers and incentivise higher refinery output. This contract has not yet traded and there is no quotes information available at this time. Create a CMEGroup.com Account: More features, more insights. Gasoline Prices in Singapore increased to 1.46 USD/Liter in November from 1.43 USD/Liter in October of 2020. Singapore Bunker Fuel Prices Today, IFO 380, IFO 180, MGO Prices per Ton, Live & Historical Price Charts Detailed forecast table. Global oil supply tumbled 780 kb/d in December as biofuels production declined seasonally and Saudi Arabia reduced output. All rights reserved. This was the first trade following the launch of ICE’s 0.5%S marine fuel contracts that day. Still have questions? Looking for online definition of HSFO or what HSFO stands for? In 2016, the International Marine Organization (IMO) agreed to limit the sulfur content in all marine fuels to 0.5 percent beginning in 2020, with the exception of fuel burned in Sulfur Emission Control Area regions, which are already at lower sulfur limits. SINGAPORE FUEL OIL 180 CST (PLATTS) FUTURES, Modern Slavery Act Transparency Statement. In addition, our HSFO cracks remain slightly below market forwards (-$20/bbl vs. market forwards at -$17.50/bbl). Main impact in first year but manageable over time. $20.00 Qingdao . Natural gas prices are closely linked to oil prices - either the High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO) price or Brent price. $114/mt). The IEA assumes 1mbpd of bunker demand will move to 0.5% VLSFO (out of a total bunker demand of 4mbpd) – i.e. $20.00 Bremerhaven. Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX. The volume of oil demand affected by this change is significant. Crude oil Brent price forecast for next months and years. Gasoline Prices in Singapore averaged 1.49 USD/Liter from 1990 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 1.80 USD/Liter in June of 2015 and a record low of 0.61 USD/Liter in December of 1990. increase from 37% in 2019 to 39% this year. This assists in assessing the true energy cost to shipping companies and can be compared on a MJ/$ basis. Rising Regional averages - Click for full details. Oil price forecast for 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024. S Korea HSFO differential hits 4-month high on tight supply 9th December 2020 12:41 GMT Tight supply of the 380 CST high sulfur bunker fuel grade in South Korea has led its differential to benchmark FOB Singapore high sulfur fuel oil cargo assessments to a 4-month high of $73.06/mt on Dec. 9, S&P Global Platts data showed. This weakens the case for non-compliance as a higher concentration of supply points is easier to police. Manage the risk associated with renewable energies, environmental change and sustainable investments. Index: IFO 380: VLSFO 0.5: MGO 0.1: World [? ]: Subscribe for a year or order a 1-month trial. When exercised against, the Clearing House, at its discretion, selects sellers against which to exercise on a pro rata basis Strike Price Intervals . 3.5% HSFO barges will likely switch to 0.5% VLSFO or 0.1% MGO. Index: IFO 380: VLSFO 0.5: MGO 0.1: World [? We also assume that 50% of the small vessels (15% of fuel use or 0.4m bpd of HSFO) will not comply. The volume of oil demand affected by this change is significant. This would cause the total spread between HSFO-MGO to be $680/mt (almost double current levels), creating a large incentive for both shipowners and suppliers to find a solution. With rising fuel prices, BunkerEx records Calorific Values of all fuel supplies to monitor variations between suppliers, ports and fuel types. We are instead now less constructive on distillate cracks, with a forecast close to market forwards ($18.50/bbl vs. market forwards at $19/bbl), in part due to weaker expected economic growth. Finished Diesel/Gasoil Price (Non-Marine) 1. Refining Conversion Reinvestment Economics 1. Back in March, ClipperData unveiled its first forecast for marine fuel demand between 2020 and 2025. Search our directory for a broker that fits your needs. We also look at events that cause oil price movements. IMO 2020: VLSFO to price at US $531/mt in Rotterdam as compared to US $309/mt for HSFO Says Mcquilling Services in Mid-Year Tanker Market Outlook in International Shipping News 02/09/2019 Main impact in first year but manageable over time. In 2021, the forecast natural gas share declines to 34% in response to a forecast increase in the price ofnatural gas delivered to electricity generators from an average of $2.44/MMBtu in 2020 to $3.38/MMBtu in 2021 (an increase of 39%) . Naphtha decreased 105.65 USD/T or 19.71% since the beginning of 2020, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Shippers and refiners adjust to IMO 2020 shakeup Detailed forecast table. Wholesale prices are forecast to fall in NSW and Victoria every year until 2025 with the exception of NSW in 2023. I Need . Various estimates put 3.5% HSFO demand from scrubbers at 5-16% of total bunker demand (300-800kbpd), meaning at best 84% of 3.5% HSFO bunker demand will disappear (assuming full compliance). 25% of future bunker demand will come from new compliant fuels. The price is in US Dollar per 1 oil barrell. IMO 2020 and lower sulfur-content requirements. Conference ERCOT sees 15.5% reserve margin, up from 2020's 12.6%, down from May forecast. Given the recent bad press about open-loop scrubbers, closed-loop scrubbers are likely to be the only option. Prices for fuel oil in Rotterdam in May are trading at about an $8.20 a barrel discount to Brent crude, according to fair value data compiled by Bloomberg. Switch to LNG Non-compliance is also possible. 1: Rotterdam/Antwerp: $ 300: $ 375 Oil demand growth is forecast to accelerate to 1.2 mb/d, supported partly by prices remaining relatively subdued, higher global GDP growth than last year and by progress in settling trade disputes. Gasoline Prices in Singapore increased to 1.46 USD/Liter in November from 1.43 USD/Liter in October of 2020. Biggest IFO380 1-Day Movers. Hear from active traders about their experience adding CME Group futures and options on futures to their portfolio. The price effects will occur once demand changes, at some point before the January cut-off date." Even using a [technically incorrect] assumption that sulphur blends linearly, the mixes required to turn a 2.47% HSFO (global average) to 0.5% would be 83% of MGO and 17% of HSFO. The average IFO380 price across the four major global bunkering ports of Singapore, Fujairah, Rotterdam, and Houston Has fallen 21% over the last two weeks, from $401.50/mt on August 2 to $314.50/mt on Friday. Now consider the supply chain for Singapore of 3.5% HSFO: 3.5% HSFO is typically sourced from the Baltics or Caribbean and then transported to Singapore via VLCC. Indeed, the bunker fuel demand landscape will change dramatically in 2020. Gasoline Prices in Singapore averaged 1.49 USD/Liter from 1990 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 1.80 USD/Liter in June of 2015 and a record low of 0.61 USD/Liter in December of 1990. In a worst case, HSFO prices may drop to a level where HSFO becomes an attractive fuel for power plants. The cost of 0.1% MGO could go as high as $900/mt from current levels. In its latest monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global demand growth in 2019 for a second consecutive month. The average oil price within the current or previous consumption month(s) is used as the index price. 5 Still, the Dubai benchmark serves an important market role, with at least 18 million barrels of oil per day traded in the region indexed to its price6. In order to compete, 3.5% HSFO will need to be priced at parity with LNG and coal which results in a price of approximately $220/mt. Singapore: HSFO Sales Rally on Scrubber-related Demand. Even with the uptake in retrofit scrubber demand and the widespread installation on newbuilds, the most optimistic figures indicate that 3,800 ships will have scrubbers by 2020. US shale powers global oil market transformation. Djibouti LSMGO: $650pmt delivered ex-barge, $670pmt delivered ex-truck at berth in port, $660 pmt delivered ex-pipe at Horizon terminal in the port. Price trend by month. WeWork, 199 Bishopsgate, London, EC2M 3TY or Rambla Josep Tarradellas 1, Bajos D2, Castelldefels 08860, Contact | Demand for high-sulfur residual fuel oil for ship bunkers was 3.5 million barrels per day in 2018—out of 7 million barrels per d… Discover how you can access our oil prices, news & analysis HSFO's record discounts to crude globally helped bring about a demand recovery, led by US refiner buying. Please choose another time period or contract. Please choose another time period or contract. While a majority of Asian sour crude is priced against the Dubai benchmark, it is generally accepted that the Dubai benchmark itself is a derivative of Brent. (See Chart 1.) © 2020 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved. Market Insights and Analytics Commodity Prices and Essential Market Data Real-Time News, Prices and Analysis Maps and Geospatial Data Forward Curves and Risk Valuation Data. The consensus forecast is the sulphur penalty at times will be high, as the … For more information on BunkerEx services, please contact team@bunker-ex.com. Settlement prices on instruments without open interest or volume are provided for web users only and are not published on Market Data Platform (MDP). The future cost of 3.5% HSFO could go as low as $220/mt. Dec 21. As the supplier landscape changes, existing products will need to find new homes and prices: 3.5% HSFO will find its way to power generation and storage from refineries who have to produce it (this might be good for Dirty Tankers as floating storage). Refinery complexity is commonly measured using the Nelson Complexity Index (NCI). This is not just because more ships will run on 0.1% MGO but also for its use in blending to a 0.5% VLSFO (see table above). While OPEC put noncompliance measured by illegal consumption of HSFO at around 30 percent, we expect something closer to 10 percent. The future cost of 3.5% HSFO could go as low as $220/mt. In 2016, the International Marine Organization (IMO) agreed to limit the sulfur content in all marine fuels to 0.5 percent beginning in 2020, with the exception of fuel burned in Sulfur Emission Control Area regions, which are already at lower sulfur limits. 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